THE ATTEMPT TO VALIDATE THE APPLICABILITY OF TWO CLIMATE MODELS FOR THE EVALUATION OF HEAT WAVE RELATED MORTALITY IN WARSAW IN THE 21ST CENTURY

被引：5

作者：

Kuchcik, Magdalena ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Polish Acad Sci, Inst Geog & Spatial Org, Twarda 51-55, PL-00818 Warsaw, Poland

来源：

GEOGRAPHIA POLONICA | 2013年 / 86卷 / 04期

关键词：

climate models; heat waves; modelled air temperature; mortality; Poland;

D O I：

10.7163/GPol.2013.25

中图分类号：

P9 [自然地理学]; K9 [地理];

学科分类号：

0705 ; 070501 ;

摘要：

In the analysis of the potential of applying models to estimate threat of heat waves in Poland up to the end of the 21st century, two discrepant climate change models: the MPI-M-REMO-ECHAM5 and DMI-HIRHAM5-ARPEGE have been used. In this regard, the maximum air temperature was analysed. The accepted definition of a heat wave was 3 and 5 consecutive days of temperatures >= 30 degrees C. According to the more realistic ARPEGE model, after 2040, the number of 3-day heat waves will rise by 370% and after 2070 - 460%. In Warsaw, the extent of possible mortality rates due to cardiovascular disease in heat waves amounted to +134% in the period after 2070 according to the ARPEGE model.

引用

页码：295 / 311

页数：17