THE ESTIMATED LONG-TERM IMPACT OF TSETSE CONTROL ON THE SIZE OF THE POPULATION OF CATTLE IN THE DIDESSA-VALLEY, WESTERN ETHIOPIA

The long-term impact of tsetse control on cattle population size in the Didessa Valley, western Ethiopia, was analysed using an age-structured population model. A prior analytical assessment revealed that the risk of cattle dying in the tsetse-unprotected villages ranged from 4 to 9 times higher than in the tsetse-protected village. Model results show that during a period of 10 years the cattle population in the tsetse-protected village of Meti is likely to increase from 167 to 583 animals, while that in the adjacent tsetse-unprotected village of Gale remains almost constant. Model simulations also predict that improving the survival rate of calves in the tsetse-unprotected villages of Taikiltu and Temoloko (which presently have calf mortality rates of up to 35%) would bring a substantial increase in their cattle population.