SEQUENTIAL IMPUTATIONS AND BAYESIAN MISSING DATA PROBLEMS

For missing data problems, Tanner and Wong have described a data augmentation procedure that approximates the actual posterior distribution of the parameter vector by a mixture of complete data posteriors. Their method of constructing the complete data sets is closely related to the Gibbs sampler. Both required iterations, and, similar to the EM algorithm, convergence can be slow. We introduce in this article an alternative procedure that involves imputing the missing data sequentially and computing appropriate importance sampling weights. In many applications this new procedure works very well without the need for iterations. Sensitivity analysis, influence analysis. and updating with new data can be performed cheaply. Bayesian prediction and model selection can also be incorporated. Examples taken from a wide range of applications are used for illustration.