PEOPLE, SKILLS, AND RESOURCES - INTERACTION-MODEL FOR WORLD-POPULATION GROWTH

A model is set up that yields the equation followed by world population (P), past and present: P = A/(D - t)M, where t is time and A, D, and M are constants. Cumulated historical population estimates confirm this hyperbolical pattern first noticed by Cailleux, Meyer, and Foerster. Technological indices should grow according to the same pattern; partial confirmation of this part of the model is presented. The growth acceleration crisis that we are now facing may have had a counterpart around 4500 B.C., during the neolithic agricultural revolution. World-population projections up to 2000 A.D. are discussed in the light of the interaction model, with and without resource limitations. © 1979.