INFLUENCE OF EQUATORIAL QBO AND SST ON POLAR TOTAL OZONE, AND THE 1990 ANTARCTIC OZONE HOLE

Based on data through 1989, comparisons are made between the variation of total ozone at Resolute, Canada (75°N) and South Pole, and the variation of low‐stratospheric temperature at Singapore (reflecting the equatorial QBO) and SST in eastern equatorial Pacific (reflecting the ENSO phenomenon). Total‐ozone variations at Resolute have been more closely related to the QBO, whereas the total‐ozone variations at South Pole appear to have been almost equally related to QBO and SST. When the average of 50 mb and 30 mb June‐July‐August (JJA) values of Singapore temperature ( T¯) increased from one year to the next, the decrease in South Pole springtime total ozone for the same years averaged 21 ± 14% greater than when T¯ decreased. When the JJA values of equatorial SST increased from one year to the next, the decrease in South Pole springtime total ozone for the same years averaged 18 ± 12% greater than when SST decreased. In the 6 cases when JJA values of both Singapore T¯ and equatorial SST increased from one year to the next, the spring values of South Pole total ozone have decreased, whereas in the 6 cases when both T¯ and SST decreased from one year to the next, South Pole total ozone has increased. Both Singapore T¯ and equatorial SST will probably be warmer in JJA of 1990 than they were in JJA of 1989 suggesting, based on these previous relations, an even deeper Antarctic ozone hole in 1990 than in 1989 and ending the biennial variation in depth of the hole of the last 6 years. Copyright 1990 by the American Geophysical Union.