The Effect of Warming Oceans at a Tide Gauge Station

This study proposes a new paradigm for assessing thermosteric effects of warming oceans at a tide gauge station. For demonstration, the trend due to the global thermosteric sea level at the Key West, FL tide gauge station was estimated using the tide gauge measurements and the global sea surface temperature anomalies that were represented by yearly distributed lags. A comparison of the estimate with the trend estimate from a descriptive model revealed that 0.7 +/- 0.1 mm/yr, (p<0.01), of the total trend 2.2 +/- 0.1 mm/yr (p<0.01) estimated using the descriptive model can be attributed to the global warming of the oceans during the last century at this station. The remaining 1.5 +/- 0.1 mm/yr, 70 percent of the total trend, is the lump sum estimate of the secular changes due to the eustatic, halosteric, and various local isostatic contributions.