THE EMERGENCE OF A NEW SUPERCOMPUTER ARCHITECTURE

A model on the dynamics of innovation among multiple productive units and other innovation models are used to examine the emergence of a new supercomputer architecture. Data on entry and exit of firms producing supercomputers having three distinctive architectures appear to conform to the main hypotheses of the models examined. Based on these data, the authors speculate that the new generation of massively parallel supercomputers will replace the currently accepted von Neumann architecture for supercomputers, although the ascendant dominant architecture cannot yet be spelled out in detail. Complementary assets, especially software, and chance events will all play a part in determining which massively parallel designs may ultimately be used for most supercomputing applications.