Analysis of Earthquake Data Based on Space-Time Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence Model

Earthquake sequences appear to be globally continuous over time. A number of empirical and seismicity-based aftershock forecasting models have been proposed. The two best-known models are the short-term earthquake probability model and the epidemic-type aftershock sequence model. The epidemic type aftershock sequence model is a point process model representing the activity of earthquakes in a region during a period of time. In this paper we discuss a space-time epidemic type aftershock sequence model. The model can be defined as the conditional intensity function containing two main component of seismicity: the background seismicity and the clustering seismicity. This function is estimated by maximum likelihood method considering the theory of point process. The background seismicity rate and the model parameters are estimated using an iterative approach. In application we estimate the space-time epidemic type aftershock sequence model for earthquake data in Java region.