MODELING COMMUNITY DYNAMICS OF A QUERCUS-COCCIFERA L GARRIGUE IN RELATION TO FIRE USING MARKOV-CHAINS

This paper analyses the use of Markovian models to describe, predict and simulate dynamics of a Quercus coccifera garrigue near Montpellier, under four different fire regimes, resulting from combinations of two fire frequencies (every 3, and 2 years) and two burning seasons (late spring and early autumn) compared to an undisturbed control. Recorded data from permanent transects made it possible to estimate transitions between the dominant species, and results suggest that post-fire succession has the properties of a first-order Markovian process. Transition matrices provide important insights on the nature and mechanisms of secondary succession. Relative stability of the systems under any of the fire regimes considered supports the conclusion that most plant species present are fire-adapted regenerating rapidly by vegetative means.