The impact of trade with the United States on electric loads in Mexico

We quantify the relationship between trade with the U.S. and electric loads in Mexico. Exports to the U.S. are highly statistically significant in explaining energy loads and significant in explaining peak loads, both in the presence and the absence of a deterministic trend in loads. These results support the hypothesis that trade impacts industrial load disproportionately. We conclude that a failure to renegotiate NAFTA is an important regulatory risk for buyers and sellers of electricity in Mexico. We offer an approach to adjusting forecasts accordingly.