Long-Term Development Prospects for the Russia's Economy

The paper discusses potential of Russia's economy long-term growth. Four development scenarios are constructed, then factors defining scenario that would materialize are specified, and chances of various scenarios are estimated. The conclusion is that average (over the period 2012-2030) growth rate in the most likely scenarios will be around 3% per year - close to the recent OECD forecast. Further analysis reveals that our country has entered a new stage, characterized with marked growth deceleration of per capita GDP and fiscal revenues. At this stage perhaps the major threat to Russia's economy may be related to the government's efforts to boost growth without any fundamental reforms.