DECOMPOSITION - A STRATEGY FOR JUDGMENTAL FORECASTING

被引:38
作者
EDMUNDSON, RH
机构
关键词
Decomposition; Forecasting; Judgement;
D O I
10.1002/for.3980090403
中图分类号
F [经济];
学科分类号
02 ;
摘要
This paper reports the results of studies concerning the accuracy and efficiency of time‐series extrapolation decisions made with the assistance of an interactive graphical tool called GRAFFECT. The tool facilitates the decomposition of the extrapolation task by permitting the serial decomposition of the cue data as the task proceeds. GRAFFECT uses an interactive graphical interface controlled substantially with the use of a mouse. The extrapolation task is divided into the following: (1) trend modelling and extrapolation, (2) seasonal pattern modelling, and (3) extrapolation from the noise residual series. As each component is modelled its effect is stored and the information is washed out of the cue series. The ultimate forecast is produced by automatic recomposition of the judgementally determined components. The results show a significant improvement in forecast accuracy over unaided judgment, resulting in a subjective extrapolation that betters deseasonalized single exponential smoothing. Copyright © 1990 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
引用
收藏
页码:305 / 314
页数:10
相关论文
共 15 条
[1]  
[Anonymous], 1985, LONG RANGE FORECASTI
[2]  
ARMSTRONG JS, 1975, ORGAN BEHAV HUM PREF, V13, P257
[3]   COMPARING FOR DIFFERENT TIME-SERIES METHODS THE VALUE OF TECHNICAL EXPERTISE INDIVIDUALIZED ANALYSIS, AND JUDGMENTAL ADJUSTMENT [J].
CARBONE, R ;
ANDERSEN, A ;
CORRIVEAU, Y ;
CORSON, PP .
MANAGEMENT SCIENCE, 1983, 29 (05) :559-566
[4]  
DALRYMPLE DJ, IN PRESS INT J FOREC
[5]   PATTERNS, PROTOTYPES, AND PREDICTIONS - EXPLORATORY-STUDY [J].
EGGLETON, IRC .
JOURNAL OF ACCOUNTING RESEARCH, 1976, 14 :68-131
[6]   INTUITIVE TIME-SERIES EXTRAPOLATION [J].
EGGLETON, IRC .
JOURNAL OF ACCOUNTING RESEARCH, 1982, 20 (01) :68-102
[7]  
LAWRENCE M, 1989, ORGAN BEHAV HUM DEC, V42, P172
[8]  
LAWRENCE MJ, 1985, J FORECASTING, V2, P169
[9]   A COMPARISON OF HOLISTIC AND DECOMPOSED JUDGMENT STRATEGIES IN A PERFORMANCE RATING SIMULATION [J].
LYNESS, KS ;
CORNELIUS, ET .
ORGANIZATIONAL BEHAVIOR AND HUMAN PERFORMANCE, 1982, 29 (01) :21-38
[10]   FORECASTING ACCURACY AND THE ASSUMPTION OF CONSTANCY [J].
MAKRIDAKIS, S .
OMEGA-INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF MANAGEMENT SCIENCE, 1981, 9 (03) :307-311