TEMPORARY CAPITAL CONTROLS IN A BALANCE-OF-PAYMENTS CRISIS

This paper analyzed the effect of anticipated temporary capital controls ina balance-of-payments crisis, using a model based on intertemporal optimization. The anticipation of the controls affects the economy from the beginning of the crisis, usually creating a current account deficit. A speculative attack can occur just before the controls are imposed, but a transitory period of capital inflows is also possible. A speculative attack is less likely when the fiscal deficit is small or when the level of reserves is high at the time the controls are imposed. © 1990.