LONG-TERM VARIABILITY OF CLIMATE

In a nonlinear dynamic system (such as the climate system), can a known short-periodic variation lead to significant long-term variability? It is known from chaos studies (e.g. Lorenz 1991) that any perturbations in chaotic dynamic systems can lead to a red-noise spectrum; however, whether a significant long-term variability can be induced is unknown. To perform this study, an idealized nonlinear model developed by Lorenz (1984, 1990) is used. The model and the results are presented in sections 2 and 3, respectively. Finally, the implications of our research to the understanding of the natural variability of the climate system due to internal dynamics will be discussed in section 4. -from Authors