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The Problem of Consistency in Public Opinion Polls: An Analysis on Public Opinion Polls for 2010-2018
被引:0
|作者:
Goksu, Oguz
[1
]
机构:
[1] Gaziantep Univ, Iletisim Fak, Gaziantep, Turkey
关键词:
Public Opinion Polls;
Political Participation;
Consistency;
Election;
Public Opinion Polls Companies;
Election Results;
D O I:
10.17829/turcom.469863
中图分类号:
G2 [信息与知识传播];
学科分类号:
05 ;
0503 ;
摘要:
Significant differences between some public opinion polls and election results lead citizens to question the credibility of public opinion polls. This study questions public opinion polls conducted for the elections and their relation to media and political participation during the 2010s. This study compares the results of the final election with the results of the research of 18 different public opinion poll companies in the last nine elections. Additionally, this study examines the role of public opinion polls about elections in political processes, whether they are building confidence or damaging it through political participation. On the other hand, the reliability of the research is tested by determining the proportional similarities and differences between the results of the poll of 18 different public opinion poll companies in the last nine elections and the election results. Retrospective (backward) archival scanning techniques were used to reach public opinion results for the elections. As a result of research, it is concluded that ORC, KONDA, Metropoll, and A&G have declared a number of major erroneous results in their attempts. However, it was observed that these companies announced proximate results with 2-3% error margin. In the Presidential Election which was held in June 24, 2015, it was determined that the total number of the 13 companies denoted Recep Tayyip Erdogan's vote rate lower than the final election results.
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页码:E30 / E54
页数:25
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