Parity and Predictability of Competitions

被引：32

作者：

Ben-Naim, Eli ^{[1
]}

Vazquez, Federico ^{[2
]}

Redner, Sidney ^{[2
]}

机构：

[1] Los Alamos Natl Lab, Los Alamos, NM 87545 USA

[2] Boston Univ, Boston, MA 02215 USA

来源：

JOURNAL OF QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS IN SPORTS | 2006年 / 2卷 / 04期

关键词：

sports statistics; parity; predictability; upset frequency; mathematical modeling; stochastic processes;

D O I：

10.2202/1559-0410.1034

中图分类号：

O1 [数学]; C [社会科学总论];

学科分类号：

03 ; 0303 ; 0701 ; 070101 ;

摘要：

We present an extensive statistical analysis of the results of all sports competitions in five major sports leagues in England and the United States. We characterize the parity among teams by the variance in the winning fraction from season-end standings data and quantify the predictability of games by the frequency of upsets from game results data. We introduce a novel mathematical model in which the underdog team wins with a fixed upset probability. This model quantitatively relates the parity among teams with the predictability of the games, and it can be used to estimate the upset frequency from standings data.

引用

页数：13

共 14 条

[1]

Albert J., 2005, ANTHOLOGY STAT SPORT

[2] On the structure of competitive societies [J].