THE SENSITIVITY OF MODELED SULFATE WET DEPOSITION TO THE METEOROLOGICAL VALUES USED AS INPUT

Variations in the wet deposition of sulfate, resulting from uncertainties in key meteorological variables, have been calculated using a scavenging model with a steady-state meteorology and a time-dependent, non-linear chemical mechanism. Input data to initialize this model are representative of data measured during an actual storm event. The results are presented in terms of the deposition uncertainty that would result if the maximum prescribed uncertainty occurred simultaneously in all input meteorological variables. For stratiform clouds, sulfate deposition uncertainties of up to 33% of the computed value were calculated. For convective clouds, the sulfate deposition uncertainties ranged from near 30% at low grid-averaged precipitation rates to near 60% at higher precipitation rates. The largest contributor to deposition uncertainty was the area of convective cloud coverage. For a mixed convective-stratiform cloud system, uncertainties in deposition remained below 40% as long as the convective contribution to total precipitation was less than 75% of the total rainfall amount. In the mixed convective-stratiform system, the uncertainties in deposition were associated principally with uncertain areas of cloud coverage and uncertain precipitation contributions by each cloud type. Uncertainties in precipitation rate, cloud top height, and cloud base height were of secondary importance for the mixed cloud system and contributed roughly equally to the remaining deposition uncertainty. In all simulations, uncertainties calculated as the standard deviation from the known value are about half of the maximum value.