FORECASTING SCENARIOS FOR SOUTH-AFRICA

Reluctant reconciliation is taking shape in South Africa. The forced marriage between the National Party and the African National Congress results from a balance of forces where neither side can defeat the other. The emergence of multiracial domination has surprised most observers who saw the battle about legalized racism as a clear moral issue. Developments have also been widely misunderstood owing to the tendency to apply false colonial analogies or popular stereotypes of violent tribalism. Scenario-planning exercises enjoy great popularity in a society beset by anxiety and ideological confusion. Rather than reviewing the various scenarios sketched by others, this article selects three courses as played out in other countries and compares South Africa to these models. By exploring the similarities between South Africa and Zimbabwe, Yugoslavia and Germany, lessons are drawn about desirable policies in the post-apartheid era.