Supporting adaptation decisions through scenario planning: Enabling the effective use of multiple methods

被引：67

作者：

Star, Jonathan ^{[1
]}

Rowland, Erika L. ^{[2
]}

Black, Mary E. ^{[3
]}

Enquist, Carolyn A. F. ^{[4
]}

Garfin, Gregg ^{[5
]}

Hoffman, Catherine Hawkins ^{[6
]}

Hartmann, Holly ^{[7
]}

Jacobs, Katharine L. ^{[3
]}

Moss, Richard H. ^{[8
,9
]}

Waple, Anne M. ^{[10
]}

机构：

[1] Scenario Insight LLC, 769 Ctr Blvd 63, Fairfax, CA 94930 USA

[2] Wildlife Conservat Soc, 332 Del Chadbourne Rd, Bridgton, ME 04009 USA

[3] Univ Arizona, Ctr Climate Adaptat Sci & Solut, POB 210137, Tucson, AZ 85721 USA

[4] Univ Arizona, DOI Southwest Climate Sci Ctr, USGS, POB 210137, Tucson, AZ 85721 USA

[5] Univ Arizona, Sch Nat Resources & Environm, POB 210137, Tucson, AZ 85721 USA

[6] Natl Pk Serv, Climate Change Response Program, 1201 Oakridge Dr,Suite 200, Ft Collins, CO 80525 USA

[7] Holly C Hartmann Consulting, POB 40721, Eugene, OR 97404 USA

[8] Pacific Northwest Natl Lab, Joint Global Change Res Program, 5825 Univ Res Court,Suite 3500, College Pk, MD 20740 USA

[9] Univ Maryland, 5825 Univ Res Court,Suite 3500, College Pk, MD 20740 USA

[10] Waple Res & Consulting, Weaverville, NC USA

来源：

CLIMATE RISK MANAGEMENT | 2016年 / 13卷

关键词：

Scenario planning; Climate adaptation;

D O I：

10.1016/j.crm.2016.08.001

中图分类号：

X [环境科学、安全科学];

学科分类号：

08 ; 0830 ;

摘要：

Scenario planning is a technique used to inform decision-making under uncertainty, and is increasingly applied in the field of climate change adaptation and policy. This paper describes applications that combine previously distinct scenario methods in new and innovative ways. It draws on numerous recent independent case studies to illustrate emerging practices, such as far stronger connections between researcher-driven and participatory approaches and cycling between exploratory and normative perspectives. The paper concludes with a call for greater support for, and collaboration among, practitioners with the argument that mixed methods are most effective for decision-making in the context of climate change challenges. Published by Elsevier B.V.

引用

页码：88 / 94

页数：7

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