SUBSTATION RELIABILITY SIMULATION-MODEL

There are many excellent analytical methods available for evaluating the average reliability indices of industrial substation configurations based on various models and the average failure and restoration/repair rates of the components that are interconnected to form an operating substation configuration. Many models are based on the assumption of independence of component failures and restoration activities. This paper presents actual utility supply operational characteristics to reveal the possible significant differences between theoretical and actual reliability indices when component failures and restoration activities are not independent. This paper also presents a customized simulation model for assessing the reliability indices of an industrial substation configuration as a function of calendar time based on the historical utility supply data and an industrial substation's operational configurations, loading patterns and restoration activities dependent on the severity of the power interruption. The simulation model will be discussed in some detail and is applied to a radial industrial substation configuration. The historical reliability performance of the utility-industrial customer is discussed in some detail regarding the theoretical expectations and changing utility and industrial facility operational characteristics. The proposed simulation model provides a means of accurately assessing the reliability of an industrial site's electrical supply without recourse to detailed and lengthy analytical calculations that can be erroneous when an industrial site's operational activities are time dependent and a utility delivery system performance is quite variable.