Statistical model of global uranium resources and long-term availability

被引:1
|
作者
Monnet, Antoine [1 ]
Gabriel, Sophie [1 ]
Percebois, Jacques [2 ]
机构
[1] Univ Paris Saclay, CEA DEN, I Tese, French Alternat Energies & Atom Energy Commiss, F-91191 Gif Sur Yvette, France
[2] Univ Montpellier I, UFR Econ CREDEN, Art Dev UMR CNRS 5281, Ave Raymond Dugrand,CS 79606, F-34960 Montpellier, France
来源
EPJ NUCLEAR SCIENCES & TECHNOLOGIES | 2016年 / 2卷
关键词
D O I
10.1051/epjn/e2016-50058-x
中图分类号
TL [原子能技术]; O571 [原子核物理学];
学科分类号
0827 ; 082701 ;
摘要
Most recent studies on the long-term supply of uranium make simplistic assumptions on the available resources and their production costs. Some consider the whole uranium quantities in the Earth's crust and then estimate the production costs based on the ore grade only, disregarding the size of ore bodies and the mining techniques. Other studies consider the resources reported by countries for a given cost category, disregarding undiscovered or unreported quantities. In both cases, the resource estimations are sorted following a cost merit order. In this paper, we describe a methodology based on "geological environments". It provides a more detailed resource estimation and it is more flexible regarding cost modelling. The global uranium resource estimation introduced in this paper results from the sum of independent resource estimations from different geological environments. A geological environment is defined by its own geographical boundaries, resource dispersion (average grade and size of ore bodies and their variance), and cost function. With this definition, uranium resources are considered within ore bodies. The deposit breakdown of resources is modelled using a bivariate statistical approach where size and grade are the two random variables. This makes resource estimates possible for individual projects. Adding up all geological environments provides a repartition of all Earth's crust resources in which ore bodies are sorted by size and grade. This subset-based estimation is convenient to model specific cost structures.
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页数:12
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