IMPLICATIONS FOR CLIMATE AND SEA-LEVEL OF REVISED IPCC EMISSIONS SCENARIOS

A new set of greenhouse gas emissions scenarios has been produced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Incorporating these into models that also include the effects of CO2 fertilization, feedback from stratospheric ozone depletion and the radiative effects of sulphate aerosols yields new projections for radiative forcing of climate and for changes in global-mean temperature and sea level. Changes in temperature and sea level are predicted to be less severe than those estimated previously, but are still far beyond the limits of natural variability.