PATHS TO AN AIR TRANSPORT FUTURE - MYTHS AND OMENS

Air transport growth is slowing and it is becoming more difficult to increase capacity. A natural response to this is to take a cautious view of the future, with decisions on new technology being taken adaptively. An alternative creative approach would need to generate novel technology and decide to put it into service. This could stimulate a new phase of growth, but history shows that the uptake of inventions is characterized by the theory of random complexity. Predictability then becomes a myth, and the best prospects of progress rest with encouraging many parallel technical options. The adaptive approach might lead to taking advantage of shorter runway length capability of aircraft, while the sort of technology which should be in contention with a creative approach could be formation flying.