Effect of Overconfident Investor Behavior to Stock Market

被引：3

作者：

Inaishi, Ryota ^{[1
]}

Toya, Kaoru ^{[1
]}

Zhai, Fei ^{[1
]}

Kita, Eisuke ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Nagoya Univ, Grad Sch Informat Sci, Chikusa Ku, Furo Cho, Nagoya, Aichi 4648601, Japan

来源：

JOURNAL OF ADVANCED COMPUTATIONAL INTELLIGENCE AND INTELLIGENT INFORMATICS | 2010年 / 14卷 / 06期

关键词：

overconfident bias; overoptimism; artificial market simulation; rising trend;

D O I：

10.20965/jaciii.2010.p0661

中图分类号：

TP18 [人工智能理论];

学科分类号：

081104 ; 0812 ; 0835 ; 1405 ;

摘要：

Behavioral finance theory has been presented to explain the phenomena not explainable by conventional finance theory based on efficient market hypothesis from the investor psychology. We focused on overconfidence - an important psychological bias -, and analyzed the effect of overconfident investor behavior in stock market using multiagent simulation. We found that, based on the increase in overconfident market investors, market dealing increases and rising trends occur more often. An analysis of the relationship between overconfidence and rising trends shows that rising trends make investors even more overconfident.

引用

页码：661 / 668

页数：8

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