A new approach to earthquake prediction: The load unload response ratio (LURR) theory

被引:89
作者
Yin, XC
Chen, XZ
Song, ZP
Yin, C
机构
[1] SSB,INST GEOPHYS,BEIJING 100081,PEOPLES R CHINA
[2] CHINA DISASTER REDUCT PRESS,BEIJING 100036,PEOPLES R CHINA
关键词
load/unload response ratio; earthquake prediction; instability of nonlinear systems; earthquake;
D O I
10.1007/BF00879596
中图分类号
P3 [地球物理学]; P59 [地球化学];
学科分类号
0708 ; 070902 ;
摘要
The response to loading is different from that to unloading when the focal media is approaching instability. The ratio of the response rate during loading to that during unloading, called Load/Unload Response Ratio Y (LURR), could be a measure of the closeness degree to instability and is used in a new approach to earthquake prediction. Retrospective examination of some one hundred earthquake cases (from M 4 to M 8.6) indicates that for more than 80% of the examined ones, the value of Y is much higher than 1 for a period before the main shock, but the Y value always fluctuates slightly about 1 during two decades for seven stable regions, so that the parameter Y could indicate a dangerous degree of an impending earthquake. Several earthquakes occurring on the Chinese mainland in recent years as well as the Northridge California, U.S.A. earthquake (Jan. 17, 1994, M(w) 6.7) have been predicted beforehand with this method.
引用
收藏
页码:701 / 715
页数:15
相关论文
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