ACCIDENT RATES FOR HEAVY TRUCK-TRACTORS IN MICHIGAN

Accident rates of heavy truck-tractors are modelled using log-linear methods. The accident data used are a census of truck-tractor involvements in Michigan from May 1987 to April 1988. Travel data used to calculate the rates were produced by a survey of truck-tractors in Michigan covering the same time period. Both the accident and travel data were limited to Michigan-registered tractors operating in Michigan. Log-linear models of casualty and property-damage-only accident rates were developed using number of trailers, road type, area type, and time of day as predictor variables. Overall, differences between tractors with one and two trailers were not significant. Tractors with no trailers (bobtails) have significantly higher accident rates. Characteristics of the operating environment were found to have larger effects on the accident rate than tractor configuration (except for the bobtail). Rates varied by a factor of up to 6.8, depending on the road type. Casualty accident risk at night was 1.4 times the risk during the day. The risk of a casualty accident in rural areas was 1.6 times that of urban areas.