INTERTEMPORAL BUDGET CONSTRAINT AND PUBLIC DEBT SUSTAINABILITY - THE CASE OF ITALY

被引：19

作者：

BAGLIONI, A

CHERUBINI, U

机构：

[1] Banca Commerciale Italiana, Economic Research Department, 2, 20121 Milan, Via Borgonuovo

来源：

APPLIED ECONOMICS | 1993年 / 25卷 / 02期

关键词：

D O I：

10.1080/00036849300000033

中图分类号：

F [经济];

学科分类号：

02 ;

摘要：

The theory of intertemporal budget constraint is applied to test Italian public debt sustainability, with the finding that current fiscal policy has not been following a sustainable path in the 1980s. In particular, we find that (i) while primary surplus is stationary, public debt is not, (ii) permanent shocks explain about 90% of forecast error variance of public debt, while playing a minor role in primary surplus and (iii) debt is not sustainable even if stochastic discount rates are accounted for.

引用

页码：275 / 283

页数：9

共 28 条

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