INFLUENCE OF SOUTHERN OSCILLATION INDEX ON THE VARIABILITY AND PREDICTABILITY OF INDIAN MONSOON - A REAPPRAISAL

The relationship between the monsoon rainfall throughout all India, northwest India and peninsular India as well as the onset dates of the monsoon and two indices of southern oscillation (SOI), namely Isla de Pascua minus Darwin (I - D) and Tahiti minus Darwin (T - D) pressure anomaly have been studied for different periods. The study indicates that the monsoon rainfall shows a strong and significant direct relationship with SOI for the concurrent, succeeding autumn and succeeding winter seasons. The magnitude of the direct correlation coefficient for the SOI using (I - D) is enhanced over all India and peninsular India if the above seasons happen to be associated with an easterly phase of the QBO (Quasi-Biennial Oscillation) at 50 mb. The result indicates that the strength of the monsoon plays an important role in the following southern oscillation events in the Pacific Ocean. The premonsoon tendency of the SOI anomaly spring minus winter SOI shows a significant positive correlation with monsoon rainfall over all India, northwest India and peninsular India. The absolute value of the positive correlation coefficient becomes highly enhanced over all India, northwest India as well as peninsular India if the 6-month period from December to March is associated with the westerly phase of the QBO. Hence, the premonsoon SOI tendency parameter can be a useful predictor of Indian monsoon rainfall especially if it happens to be associated with the westerly QBO. Significant negative association is also found between the anomaly of monsoon onset dates and SOI of the previous spring season, the absolute value being higher for SOI (T - D) than for SOI (I - D). The negative correlation coefficient becomes enhanced if the previous springs are associated with a westerly phase of the QBO. It shows that the previous spring SOI has some predictive value for the onset date of Indian monsoon, a positive SOI followed by an early onset of monsoon, and vice versa, especially if it is associated with a westerly phase of the QBO.