Projection of 21st Century Climate over Korean Peninsula: Temperature and Precipitation Simulated by WRFV3.4 Based on RCP4.5 and 8.5 Scenarios

Historical, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios from HadGEM2-AO are dynamically downscaled over the northeast East Asia with WRFV3.4. The horizontal resolution of the produced data is 12.5 km and the periods of integration are 1979 similar to 2010 for historical and 2019 similar to 2100 for both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. We analyze the time series, climatology, EOF and extreme climate in terms of 2 m-temperature and precipitation during 30-year for the Historical (1981 similar to 2010) and RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 (2071 similar to 2100) scenarios. According to the result, the temperature of the northeast Asia centered at the Korean Peninsula increase 2.9 and 4.6 degrees C in the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, by the end of the 21st century. The temperature increases with latitude and the increase is larger in winter rather than in summer. The annual mean precipitation is expected to increase by about 0.3 mm day(-1) in RCP4.5 scenario and 0.5 mm day(-1) in RCP8.5 scenario. The EOF analysis is also performed for both temperature and precipitation. For temperature, the EOF 1 st modes of all scenarios in summer and winter show that temperature increase with latitude. The 2 nd mode of EOF of each scenario shows the natural variability, exclusive of the global warming. The summer precipitation over the Korean Peninsula projected increases in EOF 1 st modes of all scenarios. For extreme climate, the increment of the number of days with daily maximum temperature above 30 degrees C per year (DAYTX30) is 25.3 and 49.7 days in RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 respectively over the Korean Peninsula. The number of days with daily precipitation above 20 mm day(-1) per year (DAYPR20) also increases 3.1 and 3.5 days in RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 respectively.