Estimation of extreme daily rainfall above a threshold in tropical climate: the case of Cote d'Ivoire

被引:2
作者
Soro, Gneneyougo Emile [1 ]
Dao, Amidou [1 ]
Fadika, Vamoryba [1 ]
Goula Bi, Tie Albert [1 ]
Srohorou, Bernard [2 ]
机构
[1] Univ Nangui Abrogoua, 02 BP 801, Abidjan 02, Cote Ivoire
[2] Direct Meteorol Natl SODEXAM, 15 BP 950, Abidjan 15, Cote Ivoire
来源
PHYSIO-GEO | 2016年 / 10卷
关键词
generalized PARETO distribution; peaks over threshold; return period; quantile; extreme rainfall; Cote d'Ivoire;
D O I
10.4000/physio-geo.5011
中图分类号
P [天文学、地球科学];
学科分类号
07 ;
摘要
The extreme rainfalls are the weather hazards that cause much damage and many casualties. The estimation of extreme rainfall is therefore of great interest to anticipate disasters such as floods and allow thoughtful planning of the territory. This study proposes through the approach values above a threshold of analyzing the probability distribution of extreme rainfall in Cote d'Ivoire. The series excesses over a threshold of 44 rainfall stations were analyzed over the period 1942-2002. The statistical analysis highlights optimal thresholds estimation of extreme daily rainfall between 32 mm and 55 mm. The majority (34) series of daily rainfall exceeding a threshold are adjusted by the generalized PARETO distribution with a shape parameter (k) significantly negative. The uncertainty in a parameter (k) is very important and increases the estimation threshold. Moreover, the spatial analysis of decadal and centennial daily rainfall shows that the highest values are mainly on the coast between latitudes 4 degrees 30' and 5 degrees 30' North, in the extreme West in mountainous areas and central West.
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页数:17
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