Immigrant selectivity, immigrant performance and the macro-economic context

This study argues for a more nuanced approach to our understanding of the impact of economic conditions on immigration. Without differentiating the reasons why immigrants move, salient variations in temporal arrival patterns, spatial variations in immigrants' settlement patterns upon arrival, and variations in labour market outcomes will remain hidden. With information on the reasons why immigrants came to the US, this study offers a novel look at the associations between immigration and macro-economic conditions. Using data from the March Supplements of the Current Population Surveys from 2000 to 2014, we find: (i) job-related immigration is only pro-cyclical if it is not employer-based, but involves low-skill immigrants in search of employment; (ii) among job-related immigrants, the attraction of gateway states declines as macro-economic conditions worsen; (iii) with respect to labour market outcomes, immigrant characteristics that provide the highest level of immunity to the ups and downs of the economy include a high educational attainment level, residence outside the gateway states, plus the privilege of having a job-in-hand rather than looking for a job upon arrival.