IMPACT OF INORGANIC FERTILIZER AVAILABILITY ON LAND-USE AND AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION IN THE 5TH REGION OF MALI .2. SCENARIO DEFINITION AND RESULTS

A multiple goal linear programming model has been used to explore the impact of inorganic fertilizer availability on land use, crop and livestock production in the Fifth Region of Mali. Three scenarios have been examined with restricted, intermediate and unrestricted inorganic fertilizer availability. Marketable crop production was maximized under various restrictions and limiting values of other goals, such as a minimum regional gross revenue, and on the basis of sustainable agricultural activities. Results are discussed at both regional and subregional levels. Unrestricted inorganic fertilizer availability allows a substantial increase in crop production. In normal years, the food needs in 8 of the 11 agro-ecological zones distinguished in the region are met, whereas this holds for 7 out of 11 in the other two scenarios. In dry years, food needs can only be met if, in addition to unrestricted inorganic fertilizer availability and emigration, some sacrifices (e.g. lower regional gross revenue) are accepted. In all three scenarios, available animal manure has to be utilized completely and supplemented by substantial amounts of imported inorganic fertilizer, largely exceeding current total national imports. In a post-model analysis aspects are examined that could not be incorporated in the model. To stimulate the use of inorganic fertilizer, a reduction in its farmgate price is recommended. Income generated outside the agricultural sector is required to pay for subsidies on fertilizers and reduce risks in animal marketing.