Collective Agreement Status and Survivability: Change and Persistence in the German Model

This paper assesses the decline in collective bargaining coverage in Germany. Using repeat cross-section and longitudinal data from the IAB Establishment Panel, it indicates the overwhelming importance of behavioural as opposed to compositional change in this process. Further, in the first use of survival analysis for the purpose, it also charts workplace transitions into and out of collective bargaining. In addition to providing new estimates of the median duration of coverage, the paper reports on the factors generating entry into and exit from collective bargaining. These influences are found to be distinct but symmetric.