DEMOGRAPHY, POLICE BEHAVIOR, AND DETERRENCE

This paper presents a model of police response to changes in crime frequencies and a criminal response model characterizing the deterrent effects of police arrest behavior. These models are estimated for data taken from police department records in the city of St. Louis. The underlying theoretical conception is that arrests constitute communication to criminals in general in addition to the specific deterrence achieved through the arrest it see Disaggregation in both space and time enables identification of the statistical models through measurement rather than through statistical manipulation. The models are estimated for burglaries under varying demographic conditions and using data organized through aggregation in time (by weeks) and space (by census tracts). Under some demographic conditions, both police response and deterrent effects on criminal behavior are enhanced. Under other demographic conditions, these effects are suppressed. Enhancements and attenuations arising from specific demographic conditions for both the police response and criminal response models have a similar pattern, consistent with the underlying communication hypothesis. Copyright © 1990, Wiley Blackwell. All rights reserved