IMMUNE ACTIVATION MARKERS TO PREDICT AIDS AND SURVIVAL IN HIV-1 SEROPOSITIVES

Neopterin concentrations in body fluids of HIV-1 seropositives provide predictive information. In 1986, we examined serum and urine neopterin concentrations in 29 HIV-1 seropositives. Serum levels of soluble IL-2 receptor (sIL2R), soluble CD8 (sCD8), tumour necrosis factor alpha (TNF-α) and circulating immune complexes (CIC) were retrospectively analysed in 1989. All individuals had increased serum and urine neopterin, sIL2R and CIC concentrations, 27 29 had increased sCD8 concentrations, whereas all had normal TNF-α levels. During a 3-year follow-up, high urine and serum neopterin concentrations were significantly associated with progression to AIDS and with the occurrence of AIDS-associated death. Both neopterin variables were of similar predictive value (p < 0.001, generalized Wilcoxon test). sIL2R concentrations were of borderline significance in predicting the onset of AIDS (p = 0.05). All other parameters lacked predictive information in our study. We conclude, that chronic immune activation is detectable in almost all HIV-1 seropositives. Chronic immune activation may be associated with HIV-1 replication and may contribute to the immunopathology of HIV-1 infection. © 1990.