SUBJECTIVE EXPECTED UTILITY AND THE PREDICTION OF BIRTH-PLANNING DECISIONS

Married couples having various sizes of families completed the birth-planning hierarchy (L. R. Beach, B. D. Townes, F. L. Campbell, & G. W. Keating. Organizational Behavior and Human Performance 1976, 15, 99-116.) Predictions were made about whether or not each couple would decide to have a(another) child within the ensuing 2 years. Results showed that a subjective expected utility model predicted best (73% correct) for those couples who had not yet attained their desired family size. The errors in prediction were clearly not random and possible reasons for them are explored. © 1979.