FORECASTING LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY IN THE EUROPEAN UNION MEMBER STATES: IS LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY CHANGING AS EXPECTED?

The aim of the article is to propose different ways of forecasting labour productivity developments by using different statistical forecasting methods and applying different approaches to the most appropriate statistical forecasting method selection. This article examines labour productivity in the European Union member states, measured per employee and per hour worked, in the period from 1990 to 2016. In the forecasting analysis, seven statistical forecasting methods are used to forecast labour productivity for each European Union member state separately and for the European Union as a whole. Overall, three approaches to determine the forecast values of labour productivity have been used in the analysis. The impact of each statistical forecasting method was determined by using the MSE approach. The results are suggesting that the differences in labour productivity between countries should be smaller. In the future research, the level of labour productivity convergence in the European Union should be investigated.