THE LITHOSPHERE OF THE EARTH AS A NONLINEAR-SYSTEM WITH IMPLICATIONS FOR EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION

The lithosphere of the Earth can be viewed as a hierarchy of volumes, from tectonic plates to grains of rock. Their relative movement against the forces of friction and cohesion is realized to a large extent through earthquakes. The movement is controlled by a wide variety of independent processes, concentrated in the thin boundary zones between the volumes. A boundary zone has a similar hierarchical structure, consisting of volumes, separated by boundary zones, etc. Altogether, these processes transform the lithosphere into a large nonlinear system, featuring instability and deterministic chaos. From this background some integral grossly averaged empirical regularities emerge, indicating a wide range of similarity, collective behavior, and the possibility of intermediate‐term earthquake prediction. Copyright 1990 by the American Geophysical Union.