SCENARIOS FOR THE ITALIAN TELECOMMUNICATIONS MARKET - PUBLIC AND PRIVATE STRATEGIES

This article describes scenarios for the Italian telecommunications market in the year 2000 on the basis of hypotheses about the future development patterns of some crucial variables. Two scenarios are formulated and presented both qualitatively and quantitatively, and the article underlines the degree of probability assigned to them. The basic idea underpinning the analysis is that the telecommunication sector is undergoing radical change and that a new and better defined framework is required in order to correctly interpret the future development of sub-markets. Some conclusions are drawn in terms of private and public sector strategies to stimulate the development of telecommunications.