PROJECTIONS OF THE HIV AIDS EPIDEMIC FOR HOMOSEXUAL BISEXUAL MEN IN FRANCE, THE FEDERAL-REPUBLIC-OF-GERMANY AND THE UNITED-KINGDOM

Projections of the spread of the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) and of its etiologic agent, the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), are presented for homosexual/bisexual men in the three European countries with the largest caseloads. The results suggest that the HIV epidemic for French, German, and British homosexual/bisexual men has peaked around 1985 and declined rapidly thereafter. By the end of the century, and for a median incubation period of AIDS equal to 8 years, the total numbers infected in these groups are predicted to be about 31,200, 10,400 and 9,800, respectively. (These estimates more than double if the median incubation period is 12 years). In all cases the annual incidence of AIDS will reach its maximum in the early to mid-1990s. However, the AIDS epidemic will be protracted because of the long incubation period. © 1990 Gustav Fischer.