EMPIRICAL-ANALYSIS OF MACROECONOMIC TIME-SERIES - VAR AND STRUCTURAL MODELS

VAR and structural econometric models have complementary roles in the modelling of macroeconomic time series. A constant parameter VAR, provided it is statistically well specified, constitutes a valid basis for testing hypotheses of dynamic specification, exogeneity, and a priori structure, thus facilitating model evaluation, as well as suggesting a potentially efficient model development strategy. Deterministic (e.g. trends and regime shifts) and stochastic (e.g. integrated variables) non-stationarities are analysable within this framework, and the Johansen maximum likelihood procedure for cointegrated systems is used in an analysis of the determination of earnings, prices, productivity, and unemployment in the U.K. © 1991.