Assessment of risks due to climate change for the Upper Tamakoshi Hydropower Project in Nepal

被引:37
作者
Shrestha, Sangam [1 ]
Bajracharya, Ajay Ratna [1 ]
Babel, Mukand S. [1 ]
机构
[1] Asian Inst Technol, Sch Engn & Technol, Water Engn & Management, POB 4, Klongluang 12120, Pathum Thani, Thailand
关键词
Tamakoshi basin; Climate change; Hydrology; Hydropower; Risk;
D O I
10.1016/j.crm.2016.08.002
中图分类号
X [环境科学、安全科学];
学科分类号
08 ; 0830 ;
摘要
Climate change poses significant challenges to hydropower development and management in mountainous basins. This study examined the impact of climate change, and the associated risks, on the energy production of the Upper Tamakoshi Hydropower Project, which is located in the Tamakoshi basin of Nepal. The outputs of three GCMs-namely MIROC-ESM, MRI-CGCM3, and MPI-ESM-M-under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios were used for the projection of precipitation and temperature in the future. The minimum and maximum temperatures of the basin are projected to increase by 6.33 degrees C and 3.82 degrees C, respectively, by 2100. The projected precipitation varies from -8% to + 24.8%, which is expected to alter the streamflow by -37.83% to + 47% in the future. Based on the streamflow output, the risk for energy production was calculated with respect to the baseline energy production of 1963 GW h and 2281 GW h. Using the three GCMs, the risk associated with annual hydropower production under altered runoff was analyzed. The risk percentage in the future periods shows a mild risk varying from 0.69% to 6.63%. MPI-ESM-M GCM projects a higher percentage of risk for energy production during the same future periods, as compared to the baseline energy production of 1963 GW h. A mild to moderate risk, ranging from 2.73% to 13.24% can be expected when energy production in the future is compared to the baseline energy production of 2281 GW h. (C) 2016 Published by Elsevier B.V.
引用
收藏
页码:27 / 41
页数:15
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