LONG-TERM ORBITAL DEBRIS ENVIRONMENT SENSITIVITY TO SPACECRAFT BREAKUP PARAMETERS

The long term prediction of the orbital debris environment depends fundamentally on the dynamics of spacecraft breakups. These processes provide the numbers, initial velocities, positions, and ballistic coefficients for newly formed debris fragments. Efforts are ongoing to model satellite breakup phenomenon using a variety of models with varying degrees of complexity. This paper provides a comparison of four of the impirical or faster running models, then suggests an Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) test matrix approach to perform an initial sensitivity analysis of these models. The results of two of the models against the test matrix are discussed, as well as how differences in initial breakup conditions affect the sensitivity of the long term orbital debris environment prediction.