A Building Cycle Model for an Imperfect World

被引：22
作者：
Barras, Richard [1 ,2 ]
机构：
[1] Property Market Anal, Berkshire House,168-173 High Holborn, London WC1V 7AA, England
[2] Univ Reading, London, England
来源：
JOURNAL OF PROPERTY RESEARCH | 2005年 / 22卷 / 2-3期
关键词：
Building cycles; office markets; rent adjustment; City of London;
D O I：
10.1080/09599910500453905
中图分类号：
TU98 [区域规划、城乡规划];
学科分类号：
0814 ; 082803 ; 0833 ;
摘要：
A model of the building cycle is presented, expressed in terms of endogenous fluctuations in development activity, vacancy and rents around an equilibrium growth path. The dynamic behaviour of the model is determined by lags in three adjustment processes: the occupier response to changes in rents, the development response to demand changes mediated through a rent adjustment process, and the construction delay between starts and completions. The frequency and severity of the cycle depend upon the values of five key parameters including the construction lag and the transmission coefficient linking vacancy to development starts. The model has been fitted to data for the City of London office market, yielding estimates for key parameters that are consistent with its observed cyclical behaviour.
引用
收藏
页码：63 / 96
页数：34
相关论文
共 42 条
[1]  
Antwi A., 1995, J PROPERTY RES, V12, P217
[2]  
Ball M., 1998, EC COMMERCIAL PROPER
[3]   DYNAMIC MODELING OF THE BUILDING CYCLE .1. THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK [J].
BARRAS, R ;
FERGUSON, D .
ENVIRONMENT AND PLANNING A, 1987, 19 (03) :353-367
[4]   A SIMPLE THEORETICAL-MODEL OF THE OFFICE-DEVELOPMENT CYCLE [J].
BARRAS, R .
ENVIRONMENT AND PLANNING A, 1983, 15 (10) :1381-1394
[5]  
Barras R., 1996, J PROPERTY VALUATION, V14, P63, DOI 10.1108/14635789610153470
[6]  
Barras R, BUILDING CY IN PRESS
[7]  
Barras R., 2007, J PROPERTY RES, V11, P183
[8]  
BISCHOFF CW, 1970, AM ECON REV, V60, P10
[9]   OVERCAPACITY AND THE ACCELERATION PRINCIPLE [J].
Chenery, Hollis B. .
ECONOMETRICA, 1952, 20 (01) :1-28
[10]  
Dokko Y., 2001, GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE R
12345