CANCER MORTALITY NEAR OAK-RIDGE, TENNESSEE - COMMENT

A recent article by Joseph Mangano concluded that changes in cancer mortality near Oak Ridge (Anderson County) in Tennessee over a 40-year period (1950-1989) suggest an increase in cancer deaths linked to radiation contamination. These conclusions are not supported by available, representative data. In his analysis, Mangano selected for comparison two three-year periods (1950-1952 and 1987-1989) that are not representative of the entire 40 years. An analysis by decade of the 42-year period from 1950 to 1991, using U.S. mortality rates from the National Center for Health Statistics and Tennessee mortality rates from the NCHS and the Tennessee Health Department, shows that the relation between expected and actual cancer deaths for the white population of Anderson County does not differ from that for the State of Tennessee. In addition, changes in methods of reporting death statistics during the 40-year period invalidate any attempt to compare current cause-specific mortality data (such as cancer deaths) with data from the 1950s. Relevant comparisons that can be made for the period 1970-1991 again show that cancer deaths for whites in Anderson County have been statistically equivalent to the expected rates.