DO INTENTIONS PREDICT FERTILITY - EXPERIENCE IN TAIWAN, 1967-74

Are responses to survey questions about desire for additional children useful in predicting future fertility? Data from Taiwan covering the yr 1967-74, a period of rapid fertility decline and increasing contraceptive practice, indicate that reproductive intentions and contraceptive use were very good predictors of subsequent fertility. Whether more children were wanted was itself the most important determinant of contraceptive use. Aggregate consistency between attitudes and behaviour was higher than found in US surveys during the same period. Similar studies are needed to determine whether statements of intentions have predictive value in other settings as well. -Authors