PROBABLE EFFECTS OF CO2-INDUCED CLIMATIC CHANGES ON NET PRIMARY PRODUCTIVITY OF TERRESTRIAL VEGETATION IN EAST-ASIA

Changes in the net primary productivity (NPP) of natural vegetation of monsoon East Asia were simulated under three, doubled CO2-climate scenarios (GISS, GFDL and UKMO). These three scenarios and baseline climate data were converted to grids of 1-degrees x 1-degrees meshes. The gridded climatic data were used together with the Chikugo model to assess NPP under baseline and CO2-doubling climates. The potential total net production (TNP0) of East Asia was climatically evaluated to be 154 x 10(8) t dry matter year-1. The climatic changes induced by a doubled CO2 concentration are predicted to increase the TNP0 by approximately 9-15%, depending on the climatic scenario. The estimated increase in TNP0 would be limited by the difference between the rate of shift of climatic zones and the rate of migration of vegetation formations.